Understanding the impact of women's correct risk perception on human immunodeficiency virus diagnosis: Insights from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South African women have the highest burden of HIV infections globally. We investigated the temporal trends and the impact of key factors associated with HIV diagnosis among a nationally representative cohort of South African women. METHODS: Total of 24,657 women who participated in the National HIV, Behaviour and Health Surveys conducted from 2002-to-2017. RESULTS: Despite decades-long prevention efforts, we observed a significant increase in HIV prevalence over time (22% in 2002 to 21% in 2005-2008 and 29% in 2012-2017). Overall, 46% of the women living with HIV were not aware of their risk of HIV with age-specific disparities. Our findings revealed compelling evidence between HIV seropositivity and high HIV risk-perception (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR):1.47 to 3.29) which increased overtime and exceeded the other factors. At a population-level, 45% of the HIV diagnoses were exclusively associated with women who believed they were at risk of HIV in 2012-2017. Women who reported using condoms at last sexual act were also at increased risk of HIV infection, with a population attributable risk of 18% (2002) to 21% (2012-2017). CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for culturally, socially, and linguistically appropriate prevention and awareness campaigns with realistic, non-confrontational messages.

Point-of-care testing and treatment of sexually transmitted and genital infections to improve birth outcomes in high-burden, low-resource settings (WANTAIM): a pragmatic cluster randomised crossover trial in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and bacterial vaginosis have been associated with adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes, but there is conflicting evidence on the benefits of antenatal screening and treatment for these conditions. We aimed to determine the effect of antenatal point-of-care testing and immediate treatment of C trachomatis, N gonorrhoeae, T vaginalis, and bacterial vaginosis on preterm birth, low birthweight, and other adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes compared with current standard of care, which included symptom-based treatment without laboratory confirmation. METHODS: In this pragmatic cluster randomised crossover trial, we enrolled women (aged ≥16 years) attending an antenatal clinic at 26 weeks' gestation or earlier (confirmed by obstetric ultrasound), living within approximately 1 h drive of a study clinic, and able to provide reliable contact details at ten primary health facilities and their catchment communities (clusters) in Papua New Guinea. Clusters were randomly allocated 1:1 to receive either the intervention or control (standard care) in the first phase of the trial. Following an interval (washout period) of 2-3 months at the end of the first phase, each cluster crossed over to the other group. Randomisation was stratified by province. Individual participants were informed about trial group allocation only after completing informed consent procedures. The primary outcome was a composite of preterm birth (livebirth before 37 weeks' gestation), low birthweight (<2500 g), or both, analysed according to the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN37134032, and is completed. FINDINGS: Between July 26, 2017, and Aug 30, 2021, 4526 women were enrolled (2210 [63·3%] of 3492 women in the intervention group and 2316 [62·8%] of 3687 in the control group). Primary outcome data were available for 4297 (94·9%) newborn babies of 4526 women. The proportion of preterm birth, low birthweight, or both, in the intervention group, expressed as the mean of crude proportions across clusters, was 18·8% (SD 4·7%) compared with 17·8% in the control group (risk ratio [RR] 1·06, 95% CI 0·78-1·42; p=0·67). There were 1052 serious adverse events reported (566 in the intervention group and 486 in the control group) among 929 trial participants, and no differences by trial group. INTERPRETATION: Point-of-care testing and treatment of C trachomatis, N gonorrhoeae, T vaginalis, and bacterial vaginosis did not reduce preterm birth or low birthweight compared with standard care. Within the subgroup of women with N gonorrhoeae, there was a substantial reduction in the primary outcome. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care; UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; UK Medical Research Council; the Wellcome Trust; the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; and Swiss National Science Foundation.

Preventing Stunting in South African Children Under 5: Evaluating the Combined Impacts of Maternal Characteristics and Low Socioeconomic Conditions.

More than 140 million children under five suffered from stunting in 2020. This highlights the ongoing challenge of addressing childhood malnutrition globally. We utilized data from a nationally representative sample of children under five years of age (n = 14,151) who participated in five cycles of the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS) (2008-2017). We estimated the proportion of stunted children attributed to the mothers' anthropometric characteristics and socioeconomic conditions. We also quantified the population-level burden of low-socioeconomic conditions on hunger/food insecurity among pregnant women (n = 22,814) who participated in the nine rounds of the South African General Household Surveys (GHS) (2008-2021). Results from weighted-multivariate logistic regression were incorporated into the population-level impacts of correlates of stunting and low-socioeconomic conditions. The prevalence of stunting declined from 25% in 2008 to 23% in 2017. Mothers' anthropometric measures (underweight/height < 160 cm), marital status, low education, absence of medical insurance and low-socioeconomic conditions were all identified as the most influential risk factors for stunting. Their population-level impacts on stunting increased substantially from 34% (in 2008) to 65% (in 2017). Comprehensive strategies emphasizing enhanced food security, extended breastfeeding, appropriate nutrition, and access to adequate healthcare and education are urgently needed to reduce the burden of food insecurity low-socioeconomic, malnutrition, and its long-term consequences.

Effectiveness of one and two doses of ivermectin mass drug administration in reducing the prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Western Province, Solomon Islands: a cluster-randomised, before-after analysis.

Background: Ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) is effective for controlling onchocerciasis and scabies, with evidence supporting its role in some species of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections. In the context of RISE, a cluster-randomised trial for scabies, this study evaluated the effectiveness of ivermectin MDA in reducing STH burden in the Western Province of Solomon Islands. Methods: Twenty villages were randomised 1:1 to receive ivermectin MDA as one dose (IVM-1) or two doses (IVM-2) for scabies. The effectiveness of one and two doses in reducing STH prevalence and intensity was evaluated before (May 2019) and 21 months after (February 2021) MDA in May 2019. All residents aged 12 months or older in the study villages were eligible to participate and provide stool specimens. Species-specific STH infection and intensity were assessed using quantitative PCR. We compared prevalence and intensity of infection between baseline and 21 months in each intervention arm individually using cluster-level analysis (adjusted for clustering) and individual-level analysis (adjusted for sex, age, and clustering). The primary outcomes were the prevalence risk difference (RD) from the cluster-level analysis, and the change in adjusted odds of infection from the individual-level analysis. Secondary outcomes included change in incident rates of mean eggs per gram (epg) of stool from baseline to 21 months, relative risk difference in prevalence and relative change in odds of infection between arms at 21 months. Sex data (male/female) were self-reported. Findings: Overall, STH infection was assessed in 830 participants from 18 villages at baseline and 1172 from 20 villages at follow-up. Females represented 58% (n = 478) of the sample at baseline and 59% (n = 690) at follow-up. We observed a reduction in Strongyloides spp. prevalence following two doses of ivermectin MDA in the cluster-level analysis from 7.0% (32/458 participants) to 1.2% (8/674 participants), corresponding to a RD of -0.07 (95% CI -0.14 to -0.01, p = 0.036), and in the individual-level analysis (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.04-0.33, p < 0.001). T. trichiura prevalence decreased following one dose from 19.4% (74/372 participants) to 11.7% (56/505 participants) (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.73, p = 0.0040), while egg count reduced in both arms (IVM-1: IRR 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.70, p = 0.0070; IVM-2: IRR 0.18, 95% CI 0.08-0.40, p < 0.001), in the individual-level analysis. We did not detect a significant difference in effect measures between the one- and two-dose arms for any species after 21 months. Interpretation: Our study highlights the long-term benefits of ivermectin MDA in reducing the burden of Strongyloides spp. and T. trichiura. STH control programs should leverage the geographical overlap of NTDs, existing drug distribution channels, and broad-spectrum agents. Funding: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Centralization of Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Systematic Review and Spline Regression Analysis to Recommend Minimum Volume for a Specialist Pancreas Service.

OBJECTIVE: Through a systematic review and spline curve analysis, to better define the minimum volume threshold for hospitals to perform (pancreaticoduodenectomy) and the high volume centre (HVC). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a resource intensive procedure, with high morbidity and long hospital stays resulting in centralization towards high-volume hospitals; the published definition of high-volume remains variable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Following a systematic review of studies comparing PD outcomes across volume groups, semiparametric regression modelling of morbidity (%), mortality (%), length of stay (days), lymph node harvest (number of nodes) and cost ($USD) as continuous variables was performed and fitted as a smoothed function of splines. If this showed a non-linear association, then a "zero-crossing" technique was used which produced "first and second derivatives" to identify volume thresholds. RESULTS: Our analysis of 33 cohort studies (198,377 patients) showed 55 PDs/year and 43 PDs/year were the threshold value required to achieve lowest morbidity and highest lymph node harvest, with model estimated degrees of freedoms 5.154 (P<0.001) and 8.254 (P<0.001) respectively. The threshold value for mortality was approximately 45 PDs/year (model 9.219 (P <0.001)) with the lowest mortality value (the optimum value) at approximately 70 PDs/year (i.e. a high volume centre). No significant association was observed for cost (e.d.f=2, P=0.989), and length of stay (e.d.f=2.04, P=0.099). CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant benefit from centralization of PD, with 55 PDs/year and 43 PDs/year the threshold value required to achieve lowest morbidity and highest lymph node harvest respectively. To achieve mortality benefit, the minimum procedure threshold is 45 PDs/year, with the lowest and optimum mortality value (i.e. a high volume center) at approximately 70 PDs/year.

Exploring Whether the Electronic Optimization of Routine Health Assessments Can Increase Testing for Sexually Transmitted Infections and Provider Acceptability at an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service: Mixed Methods Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In the context of a syphilis outbreak in neighboring states, a multifaceted systems change to increase testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among young Aboriginal people aged 15 to 29 years was implemented at an Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Service (ACCHS) in New South Wales, Australia. The components included electronic medical record prompts and automated pathology test sets to increase STI testing in annual routine health assessments, the credentialing of nurses and Aboriginal health practitioners to conduct STI tests independently, pathology request forms presigned by a physician, and improved data reporting. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether the systems change increased the integration of STI testing into routine health assessments by clinicians between April 2019 and March 2020, the inclusion of syphilis tests in STI testing, and STI testing uptake overall. We also explored the understandings of factors contributing to the acceptability and normalization of the systems change among staff. METHODS: We used a mixed methods design to evaluate the effectiveness and acceptability of the systems change implemented in 2019. We calculated the annual proportion of health assessments that included tests for chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis, as well as an internal control (blood glucose level). We conducted an interrupted time series analysis of quarterly proportions 24 months before and 12 months after the systems change and in-depth semistructured interviews with ACCHS staff using normalization process theory. RESULTS: Among 2461 patients, the annual proportion of health assessments that included any STI test increased from 16% (38/237) in the first year of the study period to 42.9% (94/219) after the implementation of the systems change. There was an immediate and large increase when the systems change occurred (coefficient=0.22; P=.003) with no decline for 12 months thereafter. The increase was greater for male individuals, with no change for the internal control. Qualitative data indicated that nurse- and Aboriginal health practitioner-led testing and presigned pathology forms proved more difficult to normalize than electronic prompts and shortcuts. The interviews identified that staff understood the modifications to have encouraged cultural change around the role of sexual health care in routine practice. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for the first time that optimizing health assessments electronically is an effective and acceptable strategy to increase and sustain clinician integration and the completeness of STI testing among young Aboriginal people attending an ACCHS. Future strategies should focus on increasing the uptake of health assessments and promote whole-of-service engagement and accountability.

Community-wide versus school-based targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in school-aged children in Vietnam: the CoDe-STH cluster-randomised controlled trial.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection control programs typically consist of school-based preventive chemotherapy (PC) targeted to school-aged children. STH reservoirs in untreated community members contribute to ongoing transmission in children. The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial, conducted in Dak Lak province, Vietnam, between October 2019 and November 2020, aimed to determine whether community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) is more effective than school-based targeted PC in reducing STH prevalence and intensity in children. Methods: In this two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, 64 primary schools were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either school-based targeted PC ("school arm") or community-wide MDA ("community arm"). A single dose of albendazole 400 mg was used for deworming. The primary outcome was hookworm prevalence in schoolchildren, measured using quantitative real-time PCR. We also measured infection intensity for Necator americanus only, using qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values converted into eggs per gram of faeces (EPG). Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000309189). Findings: The analysis included 4955 children in the school arm and 5093 children in the community arm. N. americanus was the dominant STH species. The relative reduction in hookworm prevalence was not significantly different between the school arm (30.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 20.5-36.9) and the community arm (34.6%, 95% CI 19.9-49.4). Due to lower baseline prevalence than expected, the study was underpowered to detect a difference in prevalence reduction between the study arms. The community arm showed significantly greater relative reduction in N. americanus infection intensity (56.0%, 95% CI 39.9-72.1) compared to the school arm (3.4%, 95% CI -24.7 to 31.4). The community arm also showed greater relative reduction in prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity (≥2000 EPG) N. americanus infections (81.1%; 95% CI 69.7-92.6) compared to the school arm (39.0%, 95% CI 13.7-64.2). Interpretation: Although no impact was seen on overall prevalence, community-wide MDA was more effective in lowering N. americanus infection intensity in schoolchildren compared to school-based targeted PC, measured 12 months after one round of albendazole deworming with high coverage. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1139561).

Integrating testing for sexually transmissible infections into annual health assessments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the context of an expanding syphilis epidemic, we assessed the integration of sexually transmissible infection (STI) testing within annual health assessments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people aged 16-29years in Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services between 2018 and 2020. METHODS: Using routinely collected electronic medical record data from a national sentinel surveillance system (ATLAS), we performed a cross-sectional analysis to calculate the proportion of assessments that integrated any or all of the tests for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, and HIV. We used logistic regression to identify correlates of integration of any STI test. RESULTS: Of the 13 892 assessments, 23.8% (95% CI 23.1, 24.6) integrated a test for any STI and 11.5% (95% CI 10.9, 12.0) included all four STIs. Of assessments that included a chlamydia/gonorrhoea test, 66.9% concurrently included a syphilis test. Integration of any STI test was associated with patients aged 20-24years (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.4) and 25-29years (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) compared to 16-19years and patients residing in very remote (OR 4.2, 95% CI 3.7-4.8), remote (OR 2.4, 95% CI 2.1-2.8), and regional areas (OR 2.5, 95% CI 2.2-2.8) compared to metropolitan areas. There was no association with patient sex. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of STI testing into annual health assessments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander young people was higher in remote areas where disease burden is greatest. Integration is similar in men and women, which contrasts with most studies that have found higher testing in women.

The impact of ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine citrate, and albendazole mass drug administration on the prevalence of scabies and soil-transmitted helminths in school-aged children in three municipalities in Timor-Leste: a before-after assessment.

BACKGROUND: Integrated programmes that use combination mass drug administration (MDA) might improve control of multiple neglected tropical diseases simultaneously. We investigated the impact of Timor-Leste's national ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine citrate, and albendazole MDA, for lymphatic filariasis elimination and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control, on scabies, impetigo, and STH infections. METHODS: We did a before-after study in six primary schools across three municipalities in Timor-Leste (urban [Dili], semi-urban [Ermera], and rural [Manufahi]) before (April 23 to May 11, 2019) and 18 months after (Nov 9 to Nov 27, 2020) MDA delivery between May 17 and June 1, 2019. Study participants included schoolchildren, as well as infants, children, and adolescents who were incidentally present at school on study days. All schoolchildren whose parents provided consent were eligible to participate in the study. Infants, children, and adolescents younger than 19 years who were not enrolled in the school but were incidentally present at schools on study days were also eligible to participate if their parents consented. Ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine citrate, and albendazole MDA was implemented nationally, with single doses of oral ivermectin (200 µg/kg), diethylcarbamazine citrate (6 mg/kg), and albendazole (400 mg) administered by the Ministry of Health. Scabies and impetigo were assessed by clinical skin examinations, and STHs using quantitative PCR. The primary (cluster-level) analysis adjusted for clustering while the secondary (individual-level) analysis adjusted for sex, age, and clustering. The primary outcomes of the study were prevalence ratios for scabies, impetigo, and STHs (Trichuris trichiura, Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, and moderate-to-heavy A lumbricoides infections) between baseline and 18 months from the cluster-level analysis. FINDINGS: At baseline, 1043 (87·7%) of 1190 children registered for the study underwent clinical assessment for scabies and impetigo. The mean age of those who completed skin examinations was 9·4 years (SD 2·4) and 514 (53·8%) of 956 were female (87 participants with missing sex data were excluded from this percentage calculation). Stool samples were received for 541 (45·5%) of 1190 children. The mean age of those for whom stool samples were received was 9·8 years (SD 2·2) and 300 (55·5%) were female. At baseline, 348 (33·4%) of 1043 participants had scabies, and 18 months after MDA, 133 (11·1%) of 1196 participants had scabies (prevalence ratio 0·38, 95% CI 0·18-0·88; p=0·020) in the cluster-level analysis. At baseline, 130 (12·5%) of 1043 participants had impetigo, compared with 27 (2·3%) of 1196 participants at follow-up (prevalence ratio 0·14, 95% CI 0·07-0·27; p<0·0001). There was a significant reduction in T trichiura prevalence from baseline (26 [4·8%] of 541 participants) to 18-month follow-up (four [0·6%] of 623 participants; prevalence ratio 0·16, 95% CI 0·04-0·66; p<0·0001). In the individual-level analysis, moderate-to-heavy A lumbricoides infections reduced from 54 (10·0%; 95% CI 0·7-19·6) of 541 participants to 28 (4·5%, 1·2-8·4) of 623 participants (relative reduction 53·6%; 95% CI 9·1-98·1; p=0·018). INTERPRETATION: Ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine citrate, and albendazole MDA was associated with substantial reductions in prevalence of scabies, impetigo, and T trichiura, and of moderate-to-heavy intensity A lumbricoides infections. Combination MDA could be used to support integrated control programmes to target multiple NTDs. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Indo-Pacific Centre for Health Security. TRANSLATION: For the Tetum translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Factors Influencing the Effectiveness of Mass Drug Administration to Eliminate Trachoma as a Public Health Problem in Malawi.

PURPOSE: Following a national population-based trachoma survey in Malawi one round of azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) was carried out, with a post-MDA impact survey showing TF prevalence below 5% and considered eliminated as a public health problem. However, active trachoma was still present in over 200 children. We assessed whether water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) factors were associated with ongoing presence of TF in children aged 1-9 years following MDA. METHODS: A secondary analysis was performed on a sub-set of the post-MDA impact survey data for children aged 1-9 years. We used a logistic regression analysis, adjusted for clustering at the household and village level. RESULTS: Among 16,142 children aged 1-9 years, 209 (1.3%) had TF after MDA. Factors associated with a significantly lower odds of TF after MDA were living in a household with a handwashing facility (aOR: 0.37) and living in a household where water for washing is located further away from the home (30 min away aOR: 0.39, p = .034, or more than 1 h away aOR: 0.31, p = .018) compared with water in the yard. CONCLUSION: The inverse association between a domestic handwashing facility and TF is consistent with previous findings, but the association of increasing distance to collect water for washing with a reduced risk of TF was unexpected and may reflect the impact of drought and unmeasured behavioural factors related to water usage. A more comprehensive collection of sociodemographic and WASH factor information in population-based trachoma surveys will provide insight into achieving and maintaining low levels of trachoma.

Spatial variations in STIs among women enrolled in HIV prevention clinical trials in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

South Africa is faced with a high HIV and STI prevalence and incidence, respectively, with pockets of high burden areas driving these diseases. Localised monitoring of the HIV epidemic and STI endemic would enable more effective targeted prevention strategies. We assessed spatial variations in curable STI incidence among a cohort of women enrolled in HIV prevention clinical trials between 2002 and 2012. STI incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five HIV prevention trials were geo-mapped using participant household GPS coordinates. Age and period standardised incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment areas and Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and spatial patterns of STI infections in recruitment communities. Overall age and period standardised STI incidence rate were estimated as 15 per 100 PY and ranged from 6 to 24 per 100 PY. We identified five significant STI high risk areas with higher-than-expected incidence of STIs located centrally (three-locations) and southern neighbouring areas of Durban (two-locations). Younger age (<25), not married/cohabitating, parity <3 and poor education were all significant correlates of high STI communities. Findings demonstrate sustained STI incidence rates across the greater Durban area. The role of STI incidence in HIV acquisition in high HIV endemic areas need to be revisited as current highly effective PrEP interventions do not protect from STI acquisition. In these settings there is an urgent need for integrative HIV and STI prevention and treatment services.

Quantifying impact of obesity on cardiometabolic comorbidities and public health implications: Insights from South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa has the highest obesity and hypertension rates in the African region. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to quantify the correlates and burden of obesity and their impacts on cardiometabolic conditions. METHODS: The study population was 80,270 men(41 %) and women(59 %) who participated in South African national surveys (2008-to-2017). Weighted-logistic regression models and the population attributable risk (PAR %) were used after accounting for the correlation structure of the risk factors in a multifactorial setting. RESULTS: Overall, 63 % of the women and 28 % of the men were either overweight or obese. Parity was identified as the most influential factor and exclusively associated with 62 % of the obesity in women; being married/cohabiting had the highest impact on obesity in men and associated with 37 % of the obesity. Overall, 69 % of them had comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. More than 40 % of the comorbidities were attributed to overweight/obesity. CONCLUSION: Developing culturally appropriate prevention programs are urgently needed to raise awareness of obesity, hypertension and their impacts on severe cardiometabolic diseases. This approach would also significantly reduce COVID-19 related poor health outcomes and premature deaths.

Impact of marital status on risk of HIV in South Africa (2002-2017).

After decades of research, South African women continue to have the highest burden of HIV in the world. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of marital status on HIV using population and community-level data sources. We included data 13,469 and 5682 South African women who participated to South African HIV behavioural surveys in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively. HIV prevalence and incidence rates were significantly higher among single/not-cohabiting women compared to those married/cohabiting with a partner in all survey participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.60 and 1.58 in 2002-2012 and 2017, respectively). A quarter of the HIV diagnoses were attributed to those who were single/not-cohabiting women (population attributable risk (PAR%): 25% and 24%, respectively). More than 40% of the HIV infections were exclusively associated with single women (PAR%: 42%, 95% CI: 33%, 51%). Our results provided strong evidence for the profound impact of marital status on excess HIV infection rates. Targeting and reaching single/not-cohabiting women with multiple risk factors can potentially play a crucial role in the trajectories of the epidemic.

Mental health service utilisation and reoffending in offenders with a diagnosis of psychosis receiving non-custodial sentences: A 14-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: While psychosis is considered a risk factor for offending, little is reported about mental health service utilisation in offenders with psychosis and its relationship with reoffending. We examined the association between contact with mental health services and reoffending in those diagnosed with psychosis. METHODS: We linked health and offending records in New South Wales (Australia) and identified all individuals with a diagnosis of psychosis and a subsequent offence resulting in a non-custodial sentence between 2001 and 2012. We examined the incidence and risk factors for reoffending, and time to reoffending between 2001 and 2015 using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival methods. We specifically examined the association between clinical contact with community mental health services following the index offence and reoffending. RESULTS: Of the 7393 offenders with psychosis, 70% had clinical contact and 49% reoffended. There was a linear relationship between an increased number of clinical contacts and reduced risk of reoffending: those with no clinical contact had more than a fivefold risk of reoffending compared to those with the highest number of contacts (adjusted hazard ratio = 5.78, 95% confidence interval = [5.04, 6.62]). Offenders with substance-related psychosis and those convicted of non-violent offences had fewer clinical contacts and higher rates of reoffending when compared with controls (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval = [1.13, 1.47] and adjusted hazard ratio = 1.26, 95% confidence interval = [1.18, 1.35], respectively). CONCLUSION: This study supports an association between more frequent mental health service use and reduced risk of reoffending. Efforts to enhance mental health service utilisation in those with psychosis who are at a higher risk of reoffending should be promoted.

Incidence of primary hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in Australia pre- and post-unrestricted availability of direct acting antiviral therapies.

AIMS: The 2016 Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis aims to reduce new hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections by 80% by 2030, including a 30% reduction by 2020. This study aimed to estimate primary HCV incident infection among a national sample of people who inject drugs (PWID) before and after the introduction of unrestricted access to HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy via Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in 2016. DESIGN: A simple deterministic linkage method identified repeat respondents in serial cross-sectional surveys conducted among PWID. Two separate retrospective cohorts of HCV antibody-negative respondents were created, corresponding to the pre- (2010-15) and post- (2016-21) DAA time-periods. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This study took place in Australia. Among 757 PWID retained (376 pre-DAA, 381 post-DAA), more than half were male (60%), the majority were heterosexual (80%), the median age was 40 years (interquartile range = 33-46 years) and the predominant drugs last injected were heroin (24%), pharmaceutical opioids (27%) and methamphetamine (41%). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was HCV seroconversion, defined as a negative HCV antibody test result followed by a positive HCV antibody result. Time to primary incident HCV infection was estimated using the person-years (PY) method. FINDINGS: A total 97 of 376 (2010-15) and 41 of 381 (2016-21) HCV seroconversions were identified. Primary HCV incidence more than halved, from 13.6 per 100 PY [95% confidence intervals (CI) = 11.2, 16.6] in 2010-15 to 5.4 per 100 PY (95% CI = 3.9, 7.3) in 2016-21. The decline was independent of observed differences in demographic and drug use characteristics over the two time-periods (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.31-0.69, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Australia has had a 53% reduction in primary hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among people who inject drugs following unrestricted availability of HCV direct acting antiviral therapy in March 2016. Given that PWID are the predominant population at risk of HCV infection in Australia, findings add to the evidence that Australia has probably met its 2020 Global Health Sector Strategy subtarget of a 30% decline in new infections.

Geospatial variations in socioeconomic conditions and health outcomes in COVID-19 era: insights from South Africa (2020-2022).

South Africa also has the highest burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) related comorbidities in Africa. We aimed to quantify the temporal and geospatial changes in unemployment, food insecurity, and their combined impact on depressive symptoms among South Africans who participated into several rounds of national surveys. We estimated the population-attributable risk percent (PAR%) for the combinations of the risk factors after accounting for their correlation structure in multifactorial setting. Our study provided compelling evidence for immediate and severe effect of the pandemic where 60% of South Africans reported household food insecurity or household hunger, shortly after the pandemic emerged in 2020. Despite the grants provided by the government, these factors were also identified as the most influential risk factors (adjusted odds ratios (aORs) ranged from 2.06 to 3.10, p < 0.001) for depressive symptoms and collectively associated with 62% and 53% of the mental health symptoms in men and women, respectively. Similar pattern was observed among pregnant women and 41% of the depressive symptoms were exclusively associated with those who reported household hunger. However, aORs associated with the concerns around pandemic and vaccine were mostly not significant and ranged from 1.12 to 1.26 which resulted substantially lower impacts on depressive symptoms (PAR%:7%-and-14%). Our findings suggest that South Africa still has unacceptably high rates of hunger which is accelerated during the pandemic. These results may have significant clinical and epidemiological implications and may also bring partial explanation for the low vaccine coverage in the country, as priorities and concerns are skewed towards economic concerns and food insecurity.

Developing and Validating Risk Algorithm for Hypertension in South Africa: Results from a Nationally Representative Cohort (2008-2017).

INTRODUCTION: There is compelling evidence of significant country-level disparities where African countries, particularly South Africa, have the highest hypertension rates in the world. AIM: To develop and validate a simple risk scoring algorithm for hypertension in a large cohort (80,270) of South African men and women. METHODS: Multivariable logistic regression models were used to build our hypertension risk scoring algorithm and validated externally and internally using the standard statistical techniques. We also compared our risk scores with the results from the Framingham risk prediction model for hypertension. RESULTS: Six factors were identified as the significant correlates of hypertension: age, education, obesity, smoking, alcohol intake and exercise. A score of ≥ 25 (out of 57) for men and ≥ 35 (out of 75) for women were selected as the optimum cut-points with 82% (43%) and 83% (49%) sensitivity (specificity) for males and females, respectively in the development datasets. We estimated probabilities of developing hypertension using the Framingham risk prediction model, which were higher among those with higher scores for hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying, targeting and prioritising individuals at highest risk of hypertension will have significant impact on preventing severe cardiometabolic diseases by scaling up healthy diet and life-style factors. Our six-item risk scoring algorithm may be included as part of hypertension prevention and treatment programs by targeting older individuals with high body fat measurements who are at highest risk of developing hypertension.

Adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes associated with Mycoplasma hominis, Ureaplasma urealyticum and Ureaplasma parvum: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Mycoplasma hominis, Ureaplasma urealyticum and Ureaplasma parvum (genital mycoplasmas) commonly colonise the urogenital tract in pregnant women. This systematic review aims to investigate their role in adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, alone or in combination with bacterial vaginosis (BV). METHODS: We searched Embase, Medline and CINAHL databases from January 1971 to February 2021. Eligible studies tested for any of the three genital mycoplasmas during pregnancy and reported on the primary outcome, preterm birth (PTB) and/or secondary outcomes low birth weight (LBW), premature rupture of membranes (PROM), spontaneous abortion (SA) and/or perinatal or neonatal death (PND).Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, read potentially eligible full texts and extracted data. Two reviewers independently assessed risks of bias using published checklists. Random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate summary ORs (with 95% CIs and prediction intervals). Multivariable and stratified analyses were synthesised descriptively. RESULTS: Of 57/1194 included studies, 39 were from high-income countries. In meta-analysis of unadjusted ORs, M. hominis was associated with PTB (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.34), PROM, LBW and PND but not SA. U. urealyticum was associated with PTB (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.34 to 2.55), PROM, LBW, SA and PND. U. parvum was associated with PTB (1.60, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.30), PROM and SA. Nine of 57 studies reported any multivariable analysis. In two studies, analyses stratified by BV status showed that M. hominis and U. parvum were more strongly associated with PTB in the presence than in the absence of BV. The most frequent source of bias was a failure to control for confounding. CONCLUSIONS: The currently available literature does not allow conclusions about the role of mycoplasmas in adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes, alone or with coexisting BV. Future studies that consider genital mycoplasmas in the context of the vaginal microbiome are needed. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016050962.

Quantifying the temporal changes in geographical-level contributions of risk factors to hypertension (2008-2017): Results from national surveys.

South Africa has one of the world's highest proportions of hypertensive individuals, which has become a major public health problem. Understanding the temporal and spatial patterns in hypertension rates is crucial for evaluating the existing prevention and care models, which have not been fully understood in South Africa. The geoadditive models were used to quantify the geographical clustering of hypertension in the Black South African population enrolled in the most recent cross-sectional national surveys (2008-2017). Population-attributable risks were calculated for modifiable risk factors. 80,270 men (41%) and women (59%) aged 15+ were included. Using the 2017 guidelines, 52% of the men and 51% of the women were classified as hypertensive. As expected, these proportions were slightly lower when we used the previous guidelines (48% and 47% for men and women, respectively). There was significant geospatial heterogeneity in hypertension prevalence with substantial province-specific disparities. Western, Northern, and Eastern Capes were the most significant provinces, with >50% of the hypertensive men and women. The population-level impact of obesity remained high in all provinces, where 33%-to-57% and 47%-to-65% of hypertensives were exclusively associated with obese/overweight men and women respectively. Despite some improvements in certain areas, most of the country is behind the targeted levels set in 2011/2013. Identifying the most relevant risk factors and their sub-geographical-level contributions to hypertension may have significant public health implications for developing and implementing cost-effective prevention programs to raise awareness of healthy diet and lifestyle behaviours.

Point-of-care HPV DNA testing of self-collected specimens and same-day thermal ablation for the early detection and treatment of cervical pre-cancer in women in Papua New Guinea: a prospective, single-arm intervention trial (HPV-STAT).

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and same-day treatment for cervical screening in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, few published data exist on the validity of the strategy. We aimed to evaluate the clinical performance, treatment completion rates, adverse events profile, and acceptability of a fully integrated strategy, comprising point-of-care HPV DNA testing of self-collected specimens and same-day thermal ablation, for screening of cervical cancer in women in Papua New Guinea. METHODS: HPV-STAT was a large-scale, prospective, single-arm intervention trial conducted at two clinical sites in Papua New Guinea. Cervical screening clinics with an on-site consultant gynaecologist were selected in consultation with national and provincial health authorities, church health services, and local stakeholders. Eligible participants were women aged 30-59 years attending cervical screening services at the two clinics, who were willing to comply with study procedures and able to provide written informed consent. Women self-collected vaginal specimens for point-of-care GeneXpert testing (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) for oncogenic HPV types. Women testing positive for HPV underwent pelvic examination followed by same-day thermal ablation or referral for gynaecology review. All HPV-positive women and a 15% random sample of HPV-negative women provided a clinician-collected cervical specimen for liquid-based cytology. The primary outcome was clinical performance (ie, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], and negative predictive value [NPV]) of the strategy for the detection of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or worse. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN13476702. FINDINGS: Between June 5, 2018, and Jan 6, 2020, we recruited 4285 women, 3638 (84·9%) of whom tested negative for HPV and 647 (15·1%) tested positive for one or more oncogenic HPV type. Sensitivity of the algorithm to detect HSIL or worse was 85·4% (95% CI 81·0-89·6), with specificity 89·6% (88·6-90·6), PPV 35·2% (31·6-39·0), and NPV 98·9% (98·6-99·2). Among HPV-positive women, 602 (93·0%) received same-day thermal ablation and 42 (6·5%) were referred for gynaecology review, 37 (88·1%) of whom attended. Acceptability was high among both HPV-positive and HPV-negative women. Among the 329 HPV-positive women who attended a 3-month follow-up visit, 51 (15·5%) reported mild adverse symptoms that resolved in all cases by the follow-up visit. There were no serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: We conducted the first real-world evaluation of a fully integrated point-of-care HPV self-collect, test, and treat strategy for same-day cervical screening in a LMIC and found it to be effective, acceptable, and safe when implemented at scale in primary health-care facilities in Papua New Guinea. Our findings support the introduction and scale-up of HPV screening and treatment for the control and elimination of cervical cancer in LMICs, as recommended by WHO. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.